“Beam me up Scotty”………………………….#innovation

The UK Governments recent announcement to ban the sale of new diesel & petrol cars by 2040 is just another exercise in ‘smoke & mirrors’ & puts most of the onus on Local Authorities – “The government will require councils to produce local air quality plans which reduce nitrogen dioxide levels in the fastest possible time.”

By 2040 Technology may have advanced to the point where we no longer even drive ‘cars’

Looking back 23 years ago was when the world wide web was born. No iPhones, No Google, no Netflix, mobile phones had batteries bigger than the phone & we watched movies on VHS tapes. Back then only 7% of cars were diesel – that was before the Government encouraged the production & purchase of diesel cars in an effort to reduce Carbon Dioxide emissions in the face of global warming.

There is no doubt that in the next few years Electric cars will begin to dominate the market; all of the big players already have plans in place to make at least 50% of all new models Electric.

The biggest challenge is having the infrastructure in place to keep pace, charging points at workplaces & in Cities will be a massive bottleneck in the near future. They are committing 100 million GBP to this in the way of grants & this is a good start but unlikely to deliver the required changes fast enough. Anyone who has driven on the M6 regularly will tell you they have been building a ‘smart’ motorway for 4 years & it is not due for completion until 2019.

Read about the Government Plan for Clean Air Quality here & form your own opinion.

As we move towards an era of electric autonomous vehicles the biggest threat to the manufacturers will be that of ownership. If I can summon a car on my mobile & get driven anywhere – a grander form of ‘Uber’ – why would I want to ‘own’ one.

By 2040 I may be able to teleport via quantum entanglement – no doubt the Government will have to invent a new tax to replace that currently used to tax the roads.

chris@amberhill.biz

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Auto Industry at a crossroads………….#innovation

Despite claims to the contrary there is little doubt that the Automotive Industry has lagged behind major social trends in terms of energy efficiency, global climate change & emissions.

For decades the industry did little to improve fuel efficiency until the oil crisis of the early 1970’s brought about the demise of gas guzzling V8’s & V12’s.

The industry now faces a perfect storm of stricter emissions controls particularly regarding Nitrous Oxide emitting Diesels & consumer pressure for a ‘green’ alternative.

This has all been exacerbated by the Volkswagen emissions scandal although to be fair to the Automotive suppliers they have been reacting to social pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions (from petrol cars) backed by Government incentives to increase diesel motors at the expense of petrol. This has been promoted in the U.K & elsewhere by reducing Road Tax on Diesel cars & making petrol relatively expensive.

Governments seem to conveniently forget it takes 5-7 years to bring a new model to market from initial concept to volume sales.

Whereas most of the major manufacturers have invested heavily in electric & hybrid alternatives they face disruption from ‘new’ players in the market like Tesla. Indeed future competition will come from the Technology sector & not the traditional Automotive sector.

It has been estimated that up to 80% of new cars are bought via ‘cheap’ finance, readily available due to historically low global interest rates. This cannot last & already there is talk of a finance bubble ready to burst.

The Auto industry faces many challenges over the coming years & needs to be fleet of foot & responsive to customer needs if they are to survive the next decade when technology & social changes will only become more pronounced.

Chris@amberhill.biz

www.amberhill-associates.com

Gnomes predict AI to cause 7 million job losses……….#technology

artificial-intelligenceIn the U.K today salaries have barely risen in real terms in the last decade & despite decreasing unemployment many find themselves in the precarious position of holding short term contracts with minimal security.

It is hardly surprising that the introduction of Artificial Intelligence & automated technology fills many with dread.

The subject was recently discussed in Davos at the annual WEF meeting & the World Economics Forum predict a total loss of 7.1 million jobs, offset by a gain of 2 million new positions. (in 15 leading countries)

Like all new technologies there will be gainers & losers, most of the job losses will be in customer service industries & healthcare whereas the 2 million jobs will be mainly highly paid engineering & scientific roles to deliver these new technologies.

Of course none of this is inevitable. ‘The Future’ is not a destination which already exists & to which we travel inexorably. We all create the future & it is largely a result of the political & ideological choices we make on the journey.

Happy 2017.

chris@amberhill.biz

www.amberhill-associates.com

 

10 things we can learn from the #chinacrisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA07

1) What goes up MUST come down – I know it’s obvious but some people really believed it was possible for an economy to grow at 7% per year indefinitely – just ask the punters on the Shanghai Index.

2) Gordon Brown didn’t abolish boom & bust – but then we all learned that 7 years ago. Capitalism, for all its pros & cons, is inherently cyclical.

3) Every Market is interconnected – more so now than ever before, any crisis in China will be replicated to one extent or another around the globe.

4) No Government controls the market – whether its the State Capitalist Chinese or the Western Democracies – intervention is limited in its affect.

5) Transparency is a concern – Is the Chinese economy still growing at 6%, 5% or much less – no one knows & there is a distinct lack of trust in the data supplied by the Chinese government.

6) It will impact us all :- The Chinese economy is the second biggest market in the world & although exports vastly exceed imports the purchasing power of the Chinese middle classes will be severely curbed.

7) Social upheaval will follow – The political tensions in China will erupt (to one degree or another); The Chinese Government will struggle to keep a lid on the educated middle classes who have got used to continuous growth & increased wealth.

8) Capitalism is in crisis – as boom follows bust & vice versa Capital flows to the point of highest growth – leaving chaos in its wake.

9) What comes next ? – no one knows – but maybe we should be looking to develop a sustainable society based on full-filling human needs rather than continuously expanding Gross Domestic product ?

10) The sun still rises in the East, sets in the West & the world keeps on turning.

chris@amberhill.biz

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Internet of Things edges closer #innovation

The Internet of Things edges closer at the Port of Hamburg. 40,000 vehicles move through the port daily & a smart network of sensors on roads & in parking places is helping to speed the flow. This is the Internet of Things (IOT) in a real world application. The system delivers real time information to a variety of computer systems enabling Logistics to be managed more effectively.

IOT2The real benefits will come with machine to machine communications completely independent of human input. This is the ultimate destination of the IOT & is truly ‘disruptive technology’.

Imagine in the near future the same technology willM62 take direct control of your car during periods of heavy congestion, eliminating bunching & moving large volumes of vehicles inches apart at a constant speed.

The Internet of Things will change society forever & is another example of technology which causes a seismic shift.

chris@amberhill.biz

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2014 – Year of Discovery……..#automotive

This year has been an extremely exciting & challenging one for me personally. In January 2014 I signed a 12 month contract with Tata Technologies as Lead Engineer in Exterior Trim developing & bringing to production Jaguar Land Rovers’s Freelander replacement the new ‘Discovery Sport’.

In January I was based in TTL’s Coventry office but spent a lot of time at JLR’s Browns Lane plant in the West Midlands, historical home of Jaguar Cars & now utilised as a Pilot Plant for small scale production.

Walking into Browns Lane was a great experience personally as I met many old friends from JLR having worked on the Range Rover Sport Programme. Although it is a large organization employing many thousands its amazing how many people you get to know working on a project for 18 months.

The pilot build is known as VP build & this stage of the process is very much a learning process. Some trim parts are still not ‘off tool’ & its all about capturing issues via the Automated Issues Management system. This AIMs system is used to track issues & ensure the proper fix is put in place before closure. It provides visibility to Senior Management & its administration is one of the Lead Engineer’s key tasks along with developing engineering solutions & working with key suppliers to ensure timely delivery of quality parts. Most issues require a PACN (to support financial justification) & a Engineering Release to implement the change. As most Engineers are responsible for numerous parts time is rapidly eroded before its time for the next build – Hard Tool Functional Build (HTFB)

This build took place at JLR’s Halewood plant where the Discovery Sport is to be mass produced & which was to be my base for the next 8 months.

Halewood is a large plant which covers several square miles & employs over 8,000 people.  Most of the Product Coaches & Line Engineers were involved in the Browns Lane builds so there were many familiar faces at Halewood as well as plenty new ones. Halewood is one of JLR’s centres of excellence & the Engineering knowledge here is second to none.

Over the next 8 months we embarked on a number of builds increasing in numbers & complexity. This is a very stressful period for all & the nearer Volume Launch approaches the pressure piles on.

It was with a mixture of relief & a great sense of achievement  when Volume Launch in December was achieved and cars began rolling off the production line at a rate of one every 40 seconds !!

It is important to recognise the economic importance of this model; Tata have invested hundreds of millions of pounds in this venture which has created several thousand jobs at Halewood & employed hundreds of thousands in the wider supply chain. With JLR’s commitment to source 60% of parts within a 40 mile radius the importance to the Regional Economy cannot be underestimated.

To play a small part in this great venture & to help take the Discovery Sport from initial concept to volume production brings a great sense of pride & achievement.
chris@amberhill.biz

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Dis-United Kingdom……………#Scotland

Scot-indpThursday 18th September 2014 will go down in history as a momentous one for The United Kingdom & Scotland regardless of the result.

The fact that so many Scots have been completely dissillusioned with Westminster politics that they are willing to smash the Union & embark on a new journey as an Independent nation without even knowing what currency will be used is a terrible vindictment of how people have been alienated by successive Tory & Labour governments.

Perhaps the Palace of Westminster has been insulated from the real world for far too long.

No matter whether the Scots win or lose they will gain more power either by gaining full independence or from the consolation prize of ‘Devo Max’ – this will cause inevitable resentment in England where there are already calls for Regional Devolution, particularly in the long neglected North.

The 18th September will herald a new dawn in Scottish & UK politics.
chris@amberhill.biz

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Follow the #Leader

leaderGood Managers don’t neccessarily make good Leaders & vice versa. Leaders can be found in any strata of society and it is probably true to say they are born rather than made although, they often need to be discovered. Here are some key leadership traits:-

  • Leaders swim against the tide.
  • They are often mavericks who don’t follow ‘the rules’ even the ones they create.
  • They lead by example and practice what they preach.
  • They are resillient and mentally strong.
  • Often loathed as much as loved.
  • Don’t care what everyone else thinks.
  • Lead by inspiration.
  • Upset people by stirring things up.
  • Are often considered ‘awkward’ or demanding.

Are you a follower or a Leader ?

Chris@amberhill.biz

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AMBERHILL-LOGO-THUMB 

 

Stage gate process aids product development #pmot

ISO9001designprocessIn the Automotive# industry thousands of individual components are designed, developed, prototyped, tested and tuned silmultaneously to be brought together as a finished car which has to meet exacting standards for safety, perfomance and reliability.

An incredible feat of engineering and project management which is made possible by the effective use of a rigorous stage gate process based on ISO9001 . Here the output of one stage has to meet pre-defined standards before the project is allowed to move to the next stage.

The key to continued success is the fine tuning of the process itself based on ‘lessons learned’ from previous projects.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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email – are you busy doing nothing ?………….. #leadership

emailEmail is a great way to waste time and avoid responsibility. Think about it – how often do you use email to avoid doing something or push the responsibility to someone else ?  Take a look around the office – how many of those ‘busy’ individuals are just busy doing nothing ?

So here’s a challenge – for one day only forget about email. Answer every question you receive by email with a phone call. Even better – go and talk to the person face to face. You will probably be surprised how much this personal interaction improves your productivity – and if it works for one day why not try it more often.

Email is great for communicating complex data or visual imagery but is no substitute for a conversation.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

If you need project management support feel free to call me on 0775 172 2603

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