10 things we can learn from the #chinacrisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA07

1) What goes up MUST come down – I know it’s obvious but some people really believed it was possible for an economy to grow at 7% per year indefinitely – just ask the punters on the Shanghai Index.

2) Gordon Brown didn’t abolish boom & bust – but then we all learned that 7 years ago. Capitalism, for all its pros & cons, is inherently cyclical.

3) Every Market is interconnected – more so now than ever before, any crisis in China will be replicated to one extent or another around the globe.

4) No Government controls the market – whether its the State Capitalist Chinese or the Western Democracies – intervention is limited in its affect.

5) Transparency is a concern – Is the Chinese economy still growing at 6%, 5% or much less – no one knows & there is a distinct lack of trust in the data supplied by the Chinese government.

6) It will impact us all :- The Chinese economy is the second biggest market in the world & although exports vastly exceed imports the purchasing power of the Chinese middle classes will be severely curbed.

7) Social upheaval will follow – The political tensions in China will erupt (to one degree or another); The Chinese Government will struggle to keep a lid on the educated middle classes who have got used to continuous growth & increased wealth.

8) Capitalism is in crisis – as boom follows bust & vice versa Capital flows to the point of highest growth – leaving chaos in its wake.

9) What comes next ? – no one knows – but maybe we should be looking to develop a sustainable society based on full-filling human needs rather than continuously expanding Gross Domestic product ?

10) The sun still rises in the East, sets in the West & the world keeps on turning.

chris@amberhill.biz

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Capitalism is dead ? #innovation

maker-labA recent article in New Scientist described how underfunded Libraries in the US, which have been particularly badly hit since the Great Recession are starting to set aside space for small workshops called ‘Maker Labs’
These spaces contain 3D printers & other tools & equipment enabling budding entrepreneurs to design & build their own innovative products.

I’m not sure if a similar trend is apparent in the UK but it is certainly true the recession has spawned a large increase in self employment & this is not just peoples desperation but rather a desire for independence & self determination.

Capitalism may not be dying but it feels like we’re entering an exciting new phase of individual entrepreneurship & small collective innovation – who knows where it will lead?
Chris@amberhill.biz
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Buy British because it’s British ? #business

There has been some debate in the Media recently about buying British products as a way of reducing the impact of the recession & preserving British jobs; so is this a good idea ?

We live in a Capitalist society (whether we like that or not) based on competition. The consumer has a free choice of which products to buy or not to buy & we tend to seek good value for money, regardless of origin. As a consequence we are pretty good at identifying products which deliver most “bang for the buck”.

In the 1970’s most of our Electronic products originated in Japan. Some people complained this wasn’t fair to British manufacturers but consumers continued to buy Japanese products because they were better quality and hence better value for money.

Now most of our electronic products are manufactured in China or Korea & people buy them because they are cheaper & better quality than their Japanese counterparts.

Jaguar Land Rover has been in the News recently because sales are up over 30% compared to last year, is this because these products are manufactured in Britain or because they are of exceptional quality and, though expensive, represent good value for money.

Over time products evolve and the companies which make them either grow – & their shareholders get richer or, if their products deteriorate the company shrinks, the shareholders lose money & eventually the company is bust.

So, in the long run, is the best way to preserve British jobs to buy inferior goods just because they are British or to buy the best value products whatever their origin & ensure quality increases & the fittest survive ?

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Our New Year hopes for 2013

2012 has been a pretty miserable year with freakish weather on both sides of the Atlantic, in the U.K  the highest rainfall since records began saw people washed out of house and home and businesses ruined. In the USA Hurricane Sandy battered the East Coast and several lives were lost, homes ruined & businesses destroyed.

Scandal followed scandal in the world of banking, PPI miss-selling, Libor fixing, Rogue traders etc etc

As austerity measures bite, wages decline & the economy bumps along the bottom like a flat baloon.

OK, so that was 2012, what do we want from 2013:-

  • Less emphasis on GDP and more on sustainability. The current system based on mass consumption, Consumerism & unsustainable growth fed by mountains of debt is bust ! We need to replace it with a more responsible, ecologically sound system based on managing the worlds scarce resources more effectively and equitably.
  • We need to take environmental change seriously. Whether there is a direct link between recent extreme weather & man made global warming is up for debate but there is irrefutable Scientific evidence that carbon dioxide emissions are having a direct impact on average global temperature. The long term consequences could be cataclysmic.
  • More People Power – the disaffection with the banks has led to huge defection to “community” banks like the Co-operative bank. Long may this continue. We are the mass consumers and we can have a massive impact by promoting ethical business practice & behavior.
  • Reduce our thirst for Oil – despite most of the Western world being in  recession (or near) the price of Oil remains stubbornly around $100 a barrel. There are a number of factors at work here but there is little doubt we have reached “peak oil” where future supplies will gradually decline and the price rise. We need to break the cycle by urgently seeking alternative energy sources AND reducing consumption. The Automotive industry has made great strides in recent years but nowhere near enough. Much more Innovation is needed in this area.
  • A flatter playing field – whilst workers real wages & salaries have reduced year after year the income of Senior Management & Board members has continued to rise. The gap between rich & poor gets larger every year. This defies rational thought. It is up to us to change things by greater political action, workers representatives on company boards, greater shareholder influence on remuneration committees etc etc. There is NOTHING inevitable about allowing this obscene poverty gap to continue increasing.

So there are some of our wishes for 2013. Whether they come true is up to me and you. All the best.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Diamond geezer #business

The news today that Barclays CEO Bob Diamond has resigned has been greeted in many areas with unbridled euphoria. Those who blame “greedy bankers” for the current crisis are rubbing their hands in glee.

They may, however, be missing the point. All the talk about a culture of greed and lax morals is no more than politicians & moralist’s hot air.

If you put the kids in charge of the sweet shop then pull the blinds down and let them get on with it it’s not much of a surprise when you return much later all the sweets are gone & the shop is in disarray.

The current legislative framework is a result of persistent deregulation since the early 1980’s presided over by Labour & Tory and is the root cause of the Banking Crisis.

The system is broken & needs to be fixed.

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Jaguar Land Rover has a taste for Chinese #automotive

A new sales record of over 314k cars and profits of 1.5 billion GBP illustrate the success of British car maker Jaguar Land Rover and it’s innovative new products including the Range Rover Evoque which is selling like “hot cakes” at the moment particularly in China. In fact Jaguar Land Rover is opening a new dealership in China every week. China sales now represent almost 20% of the companies sales.

There is, however, another less publicised side to this story.

Since 2007 the British Pound  has devalued against the Chinese Yuan (or RMB)  by a whopping 56% as a direct result of the U.K Governments policy of Quantitative Easing. In March 2009 75 billion pounds was created electronically followed by another 200 billion pounds later that year. Further episodes of Q.E pumped a total of 325 billion pounds into the U.K economy, devaluing the pound & increasing exports.

It also goes a long way to explaining why foreign ownership of London property has increased 20% since 2009 & conversely why imported foodstuffs & other goods now seem outrageously expensive.

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What recession ??? #pmot #entrepreneur

This week Jaguar Land Rover announced a multi – billion pound investment program which will generate over one thousand new jobs in the West Midlands – a fantastic example of how a company can thrive in a recession when it focuses on producing a quality product range which exceeds customer expectations.

Here is just a short list of some major companies which not only started in a recession (or even a depression) but went on to grow into some of the biggest and most successful companies in he world today.

growthGeneral Electric – 1873

Disney – 1924

Hewlett Packard – 1939

Burger King – 1957

Microsoft – 1975

So here are some thoughts on growth in the current recession:-

  • Business Case – if the business case is sound and has been rigorously reviewed – forget the recession. Have the courage to invest in your convictions.
  • Ignore the herd – just because the majority of companies are acting like rabbits caught in the headlights doesn’t mean that yours has to.
  • Crush Competitors – that’s right, take the opportunity to mop up your timid competitors markets.
  • Eliminate waste – apply LEAN principles to maintain the competitive edge.
  • Ensure Quality – apply 6 Sigma t0 minimize defects & maximise yields.
  • Employ Interims – If you are cautious about taking on full time employees make use of highly qualified contractors available at short notice to meet your immediate business needs.

Fortune favours the brave !

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Casino Capitalism….#pmot…#biz..#innovation

traderWe have seen trillions wiped off stock markets worldwide, the FTSE 100 has lost over 10% of it’s value in the last week alone & our TV screens have been filled with hysterical traders and concerned politicians.

So does it really matter, in the long term probably not, but if you were planning on retiring soon and have an equities based pension scheme you may well have to think about postponing your retirement.

The markets have become the biggest casino on the planet, where billions are traded on market fluctuations to generate financial gain for wealthy funds. The problem is that massive losses can also be generated especially in times (like now) of great volatility.

It is almost as if Government policies are primarily based on satisfying short term targets of financial speculators.

Over the last 30 years we have seen increasing numbers of large corporations listed on the Stock Market. The benefits of this are increased transparency and greater share ownership but the downside is that company boards are increasingly focused on short term share performance rather than long term strategic growth. They are also more vulnerable to deselection which increases their focus on knee jerk reaction to stock market fluctuations.

So how do we escape from all this madness ?

Here are a few suggestions which may help:-

1) Corporations should seriously consider de-listing from publicly listed stock exchanges & revert to private Limited Company status. Directors will then be able to take a more objective long term view divorced from the daily vagaries of the markets.

2) They should follow the example of German organizations and involve workers representatives at board level, increasing participation and integration.

3) The only way to pay down debt is to generate growth; Governments need to think beyond printing money and subsidizing banks. Innovation in manufacturing and services should be strongly encouraged.

4) Failing corporations, whether banks or otherwise, must be allowed to fall. The risks of failing institutions should not be born by the taxpayer.

5) A state bank should be established to act in direct competition with the private sector so that essential Capital flows can be maintained.

6) Government (NOT essential public services) must be streamlined and taxes reduced. For too long those in business & manufacturing have subsidised those working for the state who provide no added value whatsoever.

We need a radical rethink if we want to escape the madness of Casino Capitalism.

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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What makes an Organization “Excellent”.. Part II…#pmot…#in

excellent+organization2 How does your Organization treat the people it employs ?

In the last recession it was noticeable how some organizations were quick to fire whilst others made extraordinary efforts to keep their staff. Many of the latter were Automotive companies who valued the skills and capabilities of their workforce. Of course there was self serving interest at work here as skilled workers cost a lot to train, however it is recognised that LEAN Organizations put a lot of emphasis on recognizing and rewarding their staff who, in turn, accept more responsibility as a consequence.

How is your salary calculated ?  Does your Organization have a structured pay scale and take into account National & Regional variations for your pay grade or do you just get minimum wage ?

What about training ?  does your Organization provide regular opportunities for upgrading your skills; does it pay for courses you wish to attend ? or do you struggle to further yourself via education at  your own cost.

How about the Culture ?  A “blame culture” is a sure sign of an Organization in trouble. Laying the blame means you don’t take responsibility for your own actions.

Excellent Organizations treat their staff like their customers.

Is your Organization Excellent ?

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The Jaguar roars…..

Jaguar XF - a great example of new product development success

Jaguar XF - a great example of new product development success

This weekend jaguar Land Rover announced that it had reversed its threat to close one of its U.K plants and, even better, said that it would create thousands of new jobs including 1500 at it’s plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

Barely 2 years after fears that Jaguar Land Rover might fold Q2 profits of £233 million have boosted confidence in the future of the luxury car market.

A large part of this success is due to innovative new product development and in particular the success of the new XF range.

According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), the number of Jaguar’s being registered in Western Europe in April rose 70.3 per cent year-on-year – way above any other volume manufacturer.
Jaguar have addressed one of the main concerns amongst luxury car consumers – the trade off between performance and fuel consumption. The XF does a staggering 0 – 60 m.p.h in 5.3 seconds and still manages a meagre 47 m.p.g.
Jaguar have demonstrated how investment in innovation and new product development can bring success even in the most difficult of economic climates.

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