10 things we can learn from the #chinacrisis

Posted on August 25, 2015 by admin

1) What goes up MUST come down – I know it’s obvious but some people really believed it was possible for an economy to grow at 7% per year indefinitely – just ask the punters on the Shanghai Index.

2) Gordon Brown didn’t abolish boom & bust – but then we all learned that 7 years ago. Capitalism, for all its pros & cons, is inherently cyclical.

3) Every Market is interconnected – more so now than ever before, any crisis in China will be replicated to one extent or another around the globe.

4) No Government controls the market – whether its the State Capitalist Chinese or the Western Democracies – intervention is limited in its affect.

5) Transparency is a concern – Is the Chinese economy still growing at 6%, 5% or much less – no one knows & there is a distinct lack of trust in the data supplied by the Chinese government.

6) It will impact us all :- The Chinese economy is the second biggest market in the world & although exports vastly exceed imports the purchasing power of the Chinese middle classes will be severely curbed.

7) Social upheaval will follow – The political tensions in China will erupt (to one degree or another); The Chinese Government will struggle to keep a lid on the educated middle classes who have got used to continuous growth & increased wealth.

8) Capitalism is in crisis – as boom follows bust & vice versa Capital flows to the point of highest growth – leaving chaos in its wake.

9) What comes next ? – no one knows – but maybe we should be looking to develop a sustainable society based on full-filling human needs rather than continuously expanding Gross Domestic product ?

10) The sun still rises in the East, sets in the West & the world keeps on turning.

chris@amberhill.biz

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Dis-United Kingdom……………#Scotland

Posted on September 17, 2014 by admin

Thursday 18th September 2014 will go down in history as a momentous one for The United Kingdom & Scotland regardless of the result.

The fact that so many Scots have been completely dissillusioned with Westminster politics that they are willing to smash the Union & embark on a new journey as an Independent nation without even knowing what currency will be used is a terrible vindictment of how people have been alienated by successive Tory & Labour governments.

Perhaps the Palace of Westminster has been insulated from the real world for far too long.

No matter whether the Scots win or lose they will gain more power either by gaining full independence or from the consolation prize of ‘Devo Max’ – this will cause inevitable resentment in England where there are already calls for Regional Devolution, particularly in the long neglected North.

The 18th September will herald a new dawn in Scottish & UK politics.
chris@amberhill.biz

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The true origin of the Internet…………..#innovation

Posted on June 10, 2013 by admin

In July 1969 President Richard Nixon & CIA director Richard Helms paid a secret visit to UCLA for a meeting with Head of Computational Studies Walther Fuchs.

It was after dark and Nixon & Helms were smuggled in a rear fire exit. Both were disguised and wore false beards and glasses in case they were spotted by some inquisitive student working late on her dissertation.

In the study of Fuchs the 3 relaxed with Havana cigars and Hennessy Cognac. The study was lit by moonlight filtering through the thick drape curtains & a single green reading lamp on the worn teak desk.

The walls were lined with antique leather bound books and a few more modern tomes with titles like “packet mode switching” and “The fundamentals of Electricity”

Nixon exhaled slowly, blowing a couple of smoke rings before taking a large sip on his Cognac.

Helms eyes moved around the room constantly as if searching for something elusive.

Nixon – “Walter, we need your help & what you do must remain absolutely secret, you can’t even tell your Mother”

Fuchs – “Of course, anything for my Country Sir”

Helms – “we want you to develop a system which we can use to capture peoples communications”

Nixon – “….it should appear entirely voluntary, so that they divulge their innermost secrets at will”

Helms – “It will develop over time with more & more people becoming increasingly interconnected…..”

Nixon – “if you help us we will invest billions of dollars here at UCLA & develop a whole new industry to support it’s growth….”

Helms – “we will use it to fight International Crime & to defeat the Commies…”

Fuchs – ” there……there is something I’m working on it’s called ARPANET”

Helms – “sounds good but why don’t we call it the International Net……..or INTERNET..”

Nixon exhaled and blew smoke rings across the room.

Buy British because it’s British ? #business

Posted on January 15, 2013 by admin

There has been some debate in the Media recently about buying British products as a way of reducing the impact of the recession & preserving British jobs; so is this a good idea ?

We live in a Capitalist society (whether we like that or not) based on competition. The consumer has a free choice of which products to buy or not to buy & we tend to seek good value for money, regardless of origin. As a consequence we are pretty good at identifying products which deliver most “bang for the buck”.

In the 1970’s most of our Electronic products originated in Japan. Some people complained this wasn’t fair to British manufacturers but consumers continued to buy Japanese products because they were better quality and hence better value for money.

Now most of our electronic products are manufactured in China or Korea & people buy them because they are cheaper & better quality than their Japanese counterparts.

Jaguar Land Rover has been in the News recently because sales are up over 30% compared to last year, is this because these products are manufactured in Britain or because they are of exceptional quality and, though expensive, represent good value for money.

Over time products evolve and the companies which make them either grow – & their shareholders get richer or, if their products deteriorate the company shrinks, the shareholders lose money & eventually the company is bust.

So, in the long run, is the best way to preserve British jobs to buy inferior goods just because they are British or to buy the best value products whatever their origin & ensure quality increases & the fittest survive ?

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Our New Year hopes for 2013

Posted on December 31, 2012 by admin

2012 has been a pretty miserable year with freakish weather on both sides of the Atlantic, in the U.K the highest rainfall since records began saw people washed out of house and home and businesses ruined. In the USA Hurricane Sandy battered the East Coast and several lives were lost, homes ruined & businesses destroyed.

Scandal followed scandal in the world of banking, PPI miss-selling, Libor fixing, Rogue traders etc etc

As austerity measures bite, wages decline & the economy bumps along the bottom like a flat baloon.

OK, so that was 2012, what do we want from 2013:-

Less emphasis on GDP and more on sustainability. The current system based on mass consumption, Consumerism & unsustainable growth fed by mountains of debt is bust ! We need to replace it with a more responsible, ecologically sound system based on managing the worlds scarce resources more effectively and equitably.
We need to take environmental change seriously. Whether there is a direct link between recent extreme weather & man made global warming is up for debate but there is irrefutable Scientific evidence that carbon dioxide emissions are having a direct impact on average global temperature. The long term consequences could be cataclysmic.
More People Power – the disaffection with the banks has led to huge defection to “community” banks like the Co-operative bank. Long may this continue. We are the mass consumers and we can have a massive impact by promoting ethical business practice & behavior.
Reduce our thirst for Oil – despite most of the Western world being in recession (or near) the price of Oil remains stubbornly around $100 a barrel. There are a number of factors at work here but there is little doubt we have reached “peak oil” where future supplies will gradually decline and the price rise. We need to break the cycle by urgently seeking alternative energy sources AND reducing consumption. The Automotive industry has made great strides in recent years but nowhere near enough. Much more Innovation is needed in this area.

A flatter playing field – whilst workers real wages & salaries have reduced year after year the income of Senior Management & Board members has continued to rise. The gap between rich & poor gets larger every year. This defies rational thought. It is up to us to change things by greater political action, workers representatives on company boards, greater shareholder influence on remuneration committees etc etc. There is NOTHING inevitable about allowing this obscene poverty gap to continue increasing.

So there are some of our wishes for 2013. Whether they come true is up to me and you. All the best.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Digital Switchover – a great project management success #pmot

Posted on October 24, 2012 by admin

This week has seen the completion of the Digital TV switchover in the UK. Over a 5 year period the team has managed the successful transfer from Analogue to Digital in all regions of the UK. This has involved:-

Re-engineering over 1100 transmitters from Analogue to Digital.
Maintaining coverage at around 98.5% of UK residents.
Making 95% of the population aware of the programme.
Ensuring those who need help get it fast.
Freeing up the Analogue bandwidth for other uses.

The Team achieved all this and more completing the changeover on time and within budget. It was also an excellent example of collaboration between public sector broadcasters, independent broadcasters, Ofcom, Government and other parties.

Particularly impressive were the adverts targeted at the public which were clear, concise and informative.

Congratulations to the Digital Switchover team for a job well done.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Projectsguru.co.uk

Stop trade with China Now ?

Posted on October 8, 2010 by admin

Today’s news that the Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo has been awarded the prestigious Nobel Peace Price for his peaceful resistance to Chinese oppresion and work for Human rights has raised the heat on the debate – “Should we stop trade with China now ?”

Most people are aware that the vast majority of Western companies outsource manufacturing operations to China for cost reasons and perhaps it is time we began to seriously question this strategy. Have a look at any company’s website and you will find a description of the company’s environmental policy but you will be hard pressed to find any information about the company’s attitude towards democracy or human rights. If we are so concerned about Global Warming and it’s impact on the planet perhaps we should also be paying more attention to which regimes we do business with.

Of course the opposite argument is that by doing business with China we are helping to raise living standards which will inevitably lead to greater pressure for democracy and human rights.

However it would be nice to know that the debate had at least taken place and to see some kind of clear policy on company websites regarding human rights policy.

What do you think ?

Join the debate on Twitter now @projectsguru

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Digital Switchover – a great project management success #pmot