Where we’re headed in #2021

Posted on October 21, 2020 by admin

Wow!! – 2020 – you couldn’t make it up; so where are we headed in 2021?

Working from home is now a cultural norm; whatever happens to Coronavirus this is one trend which will not be reversed. Workers who are savvy enough & technologically enabled to work remotely will continue to seek out opportunities which offer this option making its reversal impossible. Declining revenue from City Real Estate will instigate a decline in Inner City Property prices & a mass migration to the suburbs. The London property bubble is well and truly ‘popped’
eCommerce market share will continue to increase; if the High Street is not dead it’s on its last legs & is wobbling badly. This will drive eCommerce logistics where same day delivery becomes the norm.
ReCommerce sustainability will drive a mass market of re-use & hiring of products for the short term rather than as a one off purchase.This will also impact the automotive market.
Cloud storage of data will continue & there will be an even greater emphasis on the customer.
In Automotive, the current trends of increasing electrification & automation will drive a decrease in car ownership in the Western world of around 25%. As new Generation-Z drivers familiar with the cultural trends of shared ownership & reduced carbon footprint migrate away from individual ownership where cars currently spend 95% of their time sat in a parking lot. China will continue to grow driving local manufacturing capacity.
Brexit will give UK Auto companies the excuse they are looking for to slash car lines, reduce factory real estate & reduce headcount.

Chris Robinson BSc

www.amberhillassociates.com

Bring it all home……#reshoring

Posted on May 6, 2020 by admin

A recent survey in The Engineer reported that 59% of correspondents think that bringing manufacturing elements of the Supply Chain back to the UK (#reshoring) should be a priority following the Covid19 Pandemic outbreak.

There are some really good points made in the comments section & following Britain’s exit from the EEC there is no reason why this should not be Government policy, even stimulated by official Government subsidies – but should it ?

There is no denying that ever since the late 1970’s Britains manufacturing base has shrunk from around 32% to 10% of GDP – but does this matter ?

To anyone who has been involved in Engineering & Manufacturing over the last 30 years & who has seen millions of good quality skilled & relatively secure jobs migrate to China & Asia to be replaced by insecure temporary low paying ‘gig economy’ roles the answer has to be ‘yes’

However we also need to remember this shocking decline was also due to a certain amount of complacency in British Manufacturing as a result of poor Management, sloppy working practices & shoddy quality.

Rebalancing the Economy by encouraging high quality Manufacturing supported by competent Management & Customer focussed Quality Management sounds like a positive move indeed.

Chris Robinson

www.amberhill.biz

Lessons Learned – #Coronavirus

Posted on March 30, 2020 by admin

What a couple of weeks! – the world has tilted on its axis & society has changed forever plunging millions into unemployment & causing thousands of deaths worldwide. In most parts of the world bustling cities have ground to a halt as people self isolate in their homes.

So what have we learned ?

It’s not all about the ‘economy stupid’ – peoples lives are actually more important than GDP growth & the ‘bottom line’ but let’s see what happens when the medical emergency is over & the debt has to be repaid. Unlike the 2008 Financial crash we must not allow the poor to carry the overwhelming burden. If we have to learn anything from this after 10 years of austerity we cannot allow the mentally ill, the sick, the impoverished & the disabled to bear the brunt of fiscal cuts – the wealthy will have to pay their share in the form of a higher tax burden – anything less would be criminally negligent & social breakdown the result.
Humans are naturally altruistic – half a million people in the UK have came out of retirement to support the beleaguered NHS & social care sector & millions have rallied round to support their neighbours & friends. As a social species we depend on one another to survive & thrive.
The ‘Magic Money Tree’ has been well & truly discovered – here in the UK hundreds of millions have been found to subsidise 80% of wages & support the economy in the face of an unprecedented decline in economic activity.
Working from home IS possible – for many millions of us. This unprecedented event has demonstrated the capability of communications technology like no other so when it is allover the reluctance to allow home working has been swept away.
Some of us cannot work from home – people making things in factories & workshops have to be physically present to enable this – despite all the theory & academic studies about A.I & robot technology we are a long long way from this in reality.
Restrictions on travel have clearly demonstrated that 90% of journey’s are completely unnecessary. Sorry but International air travel for your sales conference or Davos event is no longer socially acceptable.We like having less pollution – take a look at the sky.
The sooner we return to normal the better. Really – maybe we don’t want to return to Normal.

chris@amberhill.biz

www.amberhill.biz

Globalisation is Good………………………………..#innovation

Posted on January 29, 2017 by admin

Much has been said about the ‘evils’ of Globalisation & the impact on impoverished workers resulting in Brexit in the U.K & Trumps victory over the pond. But what about the positive impacts of Globalisation which are rarely trumpeted (excuse the pun)

The export of manufacturing jobs from the West to Asia has undoubtedly impacted on job security in the West but what about the subsequent cost reduction in the price of consumer products.

Also, hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty in China & Asia as a result.

Those very same products are bought by the same people who moan about foreigners stealing their jobs. A TV which can be bought for £200 in a UK supermarket would cost may times that if manufactured in the UK.

Protectionism is no answer to under employment. All that will happen is the Countries affected by Tariffs will introduce their own in ‘revenge’, take the auto industry as an example.

Every car manufactured in the U.S contains hundreds of components which are made abroad. If each of these components increases in costs the unit cost of the car goes up reducing competitive advantage & ultimately the business is bankrupt.

In the end everyone loses as bureaucracy strangles innovation & the economy shrinks.

The only way to ‘protect’ jobs is by investing in education & innovation. By producing individuals who can develop & create the products & services of the future. These will be made wherever it is cheapest to do so lifting the impoverished up the socio economic ladder & increasing their own economic power.

In the UK manufacturing is only 10% of the economy but we have some of the worlds best design & development Engineers earning good salaries creating innovative products even if they are manufactured overseas.

Apple is recognised as one of the Worlds most successful & innovative corporations employing thousands in well paying jobs – but not a single iPhone is made in the USA.

‘Putting America first’ may give short term gains but will ultimately end in disaster.

chris@amberhill-associates.com

www.amberhill-associates.com

10 things we can learn from the #chinacrisis

Posted on August 25, 2015 by admin

1) What goes up MUST come down – I know it’s obvious but some people really believed it was possible for an economy to grow at 7% per year indefinitely – just ask the punters on the Shanghai Index.

2) Gordon Brown didn’t abolish boom & bust – but then we all learned that 7 years ago. Capitalism, for all its pros & cons, is inherently cyclical.

3) Every Market is interconnected – more so now than ever before, any crisis in China will be replicated to one extent or another around the globe.

4) No Government controls the market – whether its the State Capitalist Chinese or the Western Democracies – intervention is limited in its affect.

5) Transparency is a concern – Is the Chinese economy still growing at 6%, 5% or much less – no one knows & there is a distinct lack of trust in the data supplied by the Chinese government.

6) It will impact us all :- The Chinese economy is the second biggest market in the world & although exports vastly exceed imports the purchasing power of the Chinese middle classes will be severely curbed.

7) Social upheaval will follow – The political tensions in China will erupt (to one degree or another); The Chinese Government will struggle to keep a lid on the educated middle classes who have got used to continuous growth & increased wealth.

8) Capitalism is in crisis – as boom follows bust & vice versa Capital flows to the point of highest growth – leaving chaos in its wake.

9) What comes next ? – no one knows – but maybe we should be looking to develop a sustainable society based on full-filling human needs rather than continuously expanding Gross Domestic product ?

10) The sun still rises in the East, sets in the West & the world keeps on turning.

chris@amberhill.biz

www.amberhill.biz

Projectsguru.co.uk

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Jaguar Land Rover goes from strength to strength #innovation

Posted on June 24, 2014 by admin

This week Jaguar Land Rover released the following press statement:-

‘JLR creates 250 new jobs as Halewood is confirmed as the home of the new Discovery Sport

The Land Rover Discovery Sport has been confirmed as the latest model to be produced at Jaguar Land Rover’s Halewood plant. The additional jobs announced to support Jaguar Land Rover’s newest model will see the Halewood workforce reach 4,750 – more than treble the number employed there in 2010. The Halewood plant has benefited from a £200 million investment to support introduction of the first member of the all-new Land Rover Discovery family, taking the total amount invested in Halewood over the last four years to almost £500 million.’

So why are JLR doing so well when volume manufacturers like General Motors Vauxhall and other Marques are struggling:-

1) JLR are taking advantage of a global rise in premium SUV’s driven, to a large extent, by the Chinese market.

2) Their customers are relatively well off & have higher disposable income.

3) They have targeted the export market, with over 80% of sales destined for overseas.

4) Their Quality standards are superior, the attention to detail is exceptional .

5) They have an excellent engineering pedigree with a stable workforce with many, many years experience. There is no other company in the World knows as much about four wheel drive systems as Land Rover.

6) Jaguar Land Rover has a flexible business model & employs many talented & experienced engineering contractors.

7) They use a proven stage gate development process (described in an earlier post)

8) They have enjoyed massive Capital Investment from Tata investing over 2.75 billion pounds in 2014. Not bad for an organisation which was on its knees before the Tata takeover.

chris@amberhill.biz

www.amberhillassociates.com

#Insource is the new #Outsource

Posted on September 16, 2013 by admin

A recent report from Deloitte suggests that bringing jobs back in house (Insourcing) is a small but growing trend against the much larger tendency to Outsource which has dominated western industry for the last thirty years.

Companies are increasingly realizing that Outsourcing is no longer the best value option. Anyone who has been involved in Outsourcing knows it is never as simple as it’s made out, often requiring intensive effort from Managerial & Engineering staff & extensive, frequent travel. Not to mention increased wage costs in China & India, increased shipping costs and numerous supply chain delays.

The biggest issue Western companies face with Insourcing is the lack of trained, skilled staff to deliver the service. Having made thousands of workers redundant in the pursuit of cheaper Outsource options this is somewhat ironic.

This need may be met by making good use of the highly skilled Freelance professionals who operate in the market to satisfy just such demand.
chris@projectsguru.co.uk

www.projectsguru.co.uk

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#Automotive Competitive Sport………

Posted on March 27, 2013 by admin

Today Jaguar Land Rover revealed the all new Range Rover Sport in Manhattan New York. This fabulous vehicle is a terrific example of British Engineering at it’s best. The West Midlands manufacturer goes from strength to strength with double digit sales growth across the globe.

Rumour has it that JLR could sell their entire manufacturing capacity for the new Sport to China alone.

The new Range Rover sport is built to ultimate quality standards and features many examples of innovative design, from the all aluminium body shell (which is half a ton lighter than the previous model saving 15% in fuel) to the class leading infotainment system.

JLR are leading the world in automotive product design and manufacture. Long may it continue.

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Buy British because it’s British ? #business

Posted on January 15, 2013 by admin

There has been some debate in the Media recently about buying British products as a way of reducing the impact of the recession & preserving British jobs; so is this a good idea ?

We live in a Capitalist society (whether we like that or not) based on competition. The consumer has a free choice of which products to buy or not to buy & we tend to seek good value for money, regardless of origin. As a consequence we are pretty good at identifying products which deliver most “bang for the buck”.

In the 1970’s most of our Electronic products originated in Japan. Some people complained this wasn’t fair to British manufacturers but consumers continued to buy Japanese products because they were better quality and hence better value for money.

Now most of our electronic products are manufactured in China or Korea & people buy them because they are cheaper & better quality than their Japanese counterparts.

Jaguar Land Rover has been in the News recently because sales are up over 30% compared to last year, is this because these products are manufactured in Britain or because they are of exceptional quality and, though expensive, represent good value for money.

Over time products evolve and the companies which make them either grow – & their shareholders get richer or, if their products deteriorate the company shrinks, the shareholders lose money & eventually the company is bust.

So, in the long run, is the best way to preserve British jobs to buy inferior goods just because they are British or to buy the best value products whatever their origin & ensure quality increases & the fittest survive ?

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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Tag Archives: China

Jaguar Land Rover goes from strength to strength #innovation

#Insource is the new #Outsource

#Automotive Competitive Sport………