Casino Capitalism….#pmot…#biz..#innovation

traderWe have seen trillions wiped off stock markets worldwide, the FTSE 100 has lost over 10% of it’s value in the last week alone & our TV screens have been filled with hysterical traders and concerned politicians.

So does it really matter, in the long term probably not, but if you were planning on retiring soon and have an equities based pension scheme you may well have to think about postponing your retirement.

The markets have become the biggest casino on the planet, where billions are traded on market fluctuations to generate financial gain for wealthy funds. The problem is that massive losses can also be generated especially in times (like now) of great volatility.

It is almost as if Government policies are primarily based on satisfying short term targets of financial speculators.

Over the last 30 years we have seen increasing numbers of large corporations listed on the Stock Market. The benefits of this are increased transparency and greater share ownership but the downside is that company boards are increasingly focused on short term share performance rather than long term strategic growth. They are also more vulnerable to deselection which increases their focus on knee jerk reaction to stock market fluctuations.

So how do we escape from all this madness ?

Here are a few suggestions which may help:-

1) Corporations should seriously consider de-listing from publicly listed stock exchanges & revert to private Limited Company status. Directors will then be able to take a more objective long term view divorced from the daily vagaries of the markets.

2) They should follow the example of German organizations and involve workers representatives at board level, increasing participation and integration.

3) The only way to pay down debt is to generate growth; Governments need to think beyond printing money and subsidizing banks. Innovation in manufacturing and services should be strongly encouraged.

4) Failing corporations, whether banks or otherwise, must be allowed to fall. The risks of failing institutions should not be born by the taxpayer.

5) A state bank should be established to act in direct competition with the private sector so that essential Capital flows can be maintained.

6) Government (NOT essential public services) must be streamlined and taxes reduced. For too long those in business & manufacturing have subsidised those working for the state who provide no added value whatsoever.

We need a radical rethink if we want to escape the madness of Casino Capitalism.

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project managers and business consultants

Return of The Apprentice….#pmot…#in…#entrepreneur

sugarThere are always plenty of laughs to be had in BBC’s “The Apprentice” – that’s what its all about after all, rather than a serious look at innovation or
entrepreneurship, it revolves around getting a bunch of young (naive) wannabes together who are generally arrogant, self opinionated and full of it; falling over themselves to look even dafter than they are in reality (all helped by clever editing of course)

Sir Alan hams it up, pontificating in cockney barrow boy English whilst trying not to fall off the box he has to place on his chair in order not to look too short.

Each task has a “project manager” – which has probably done more to damage the profession than anything else, most of the prats on the show probably think a Gantt is a term of abuse.

The funniest bit last night was when Sir Alan referred to himself as an “electronics expert….who sees things other people cannot see..”

Hmmmmm….perhaps he was referring to Amstrad’s “emailer” phone.amstrad-emailer
Oh Yes the famous emailer phone, widely used by Sir Alan’s receptionist to
usher in the hapless competitors.

Doesn’t every home have one ?

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project managers and business consultants

Lost opportunity cost…..#pmot…#in

Bizplan03

In the last post we discussed risk aversion. One of the pitfalls of being too risk averse is lost opportunity cost.

In New Product Development Project Managers constantly balance time to market with product quality, resource management, project costs & a host of other competing factors.

In an effort to develop the perfect product with maximum process capability and meeting 100% customer satisfaction the real cost of lost opportunity is often missed.

Consider a product which on release will generate, on average,  $100,000 profit a month for 12 months. If the product release is delayed by 1 month the lost opportunity cost can be estimated as $100,000. What should be  emphasised is that this amount will NEVER be recovered. If the product lifecycle is estimated as being 12 months depending on the competition then releasing the product 1 month late reduces the lifecycle to 11 months.

If that lost $100,000 was invested at a compound rate of 5% per year over ten years it would be worth $163,000 !

So here are some tips to minimize lost opportunity cost:-

1) Invest in the project at the front end, providing ample resource and support.

2) Fix the product spec before the end of the design phase.

3) 100% perfection is great but 95% is normally good enough for most customers.

4) Make it easy for engineers by setting SMART (Specific, Measurable, Aggressive, Realistic, Timely) targets.

5) Publicise Project Milestone targets.

6) Communicate Lost Opportunity Costs.

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Are we too risk averse…?….#pmot #in

riskmanagementThis week one of the busiest Motorways in England was closed for 3 days because of a fire in a scrap yard adjoining the motorway. In the ensuing debate questions were raised about the need to prevent such a thing happening again, including closing all potential threats in sites adjoining Motorways.

This was the FIRST TIME THIS HAD HAPPENED IN 30 YEARS !!!

It got me thinking about our attitude to risk.

How much time do you spend in New Product Development assessing and mitigating against risk ?

How much delay is introduced in the project timeline for risk prevention ?

Perhaps we need to have a better balance between risk mitigation and opportunity enhancement.

What do you think ?

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#Space…the final frontier….#pmot….

yuri5o years ago today Yuri Gagarin became the first man in space when he orbited the earth in his Vostok spacecraft, winning the cold war race and catapulting himself into the annals of history.

Consider for a few moments what we have achieved since then.

We have taken “one small step for a man, giant leap for mankind” when Neil Armstrong became the first man to walk on the moon in 1969.

Like Icarus we have sailed too close to the sun in Apollo 13 and survived through tremendous ingenuity and fortitude.

Through Hubble we have peered back through Space & Time to the very origins of the Universe.

Perhaps our greatest achievement was when cold war foes became friends and joined hands in the International Space Station 30 years after Gagarin’s first tentative flight.

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Should have gone to Spec wavers..#pmot #in

product specHow many times have you worked on projects where the product spec is not defined?

This leads to all sorts of issues as the customer tweaks the product spec and the designer responds accordingly, trying to keep the customer happy but at the same time disappointing her because the timescale keeps getting extended to accommodate the changes.  A vicious circle develops leading to frustration on all sides & a perception of incompetence which can lead to loss of all important business.

This can be fixed by adopting the following practice:-

1)      A milestone MUST be put in the plan, somewhere in the design phase, for product spec sign off by both parties.

2)      It should be clearly communicated and understood that any changes following this milestone will be under change control, approved by Senior Management and will impact the timing plan & probably have a cost impact.

This practice is good for both customer & supplier. It forces the customer to clarify what they want and leaves the supplier with no excuse for not meeting planned deliverables once the spec is fixed.

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“Dee eff emm eee aaay”…? #pmot #in

DFMEADFMEA or Design Failure Modes Effects Analysis is a Risk Management Tool which is widely used throughout the Automotive Industry.

DFMEA is a Team activity which is led by the Project Manager or Senior Design Engineer.

It involves using a set form & identifying the risks in the project.

Each Risk is called a Failure Mode. Each has an Effect. The Severity of this Effect is assigned a score where 10 is high impact & 1 low impact.

Each Failure Mode also has a Cause which is ranked according to its Occurrence or likelihood between 1 & 10.

Each Failure Mode also has a Current Control and its chance of detection is ranked 10 unlikely to 1 likely.

The product of Severity x Cause x Control gives us a Risk Priority Number or RPN which gives us a measure of the size of the problem and the urgency to address it.

Identifying a Recommended Action for each Failure Mode leads us to rescoring the Occurrence & Detection and subsequently reducing the RPN.

The key to success of DFMEA is not to get too hung up about the scores and to use it as intended, as a comparative tool for Risk Analysis.

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Nokia upwardly mobile….#pmot…#in

  • “We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven’t been delivering innovation fast enough. We’re not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning.” – Stephen Elop, CEO Nokia.

nokiaThe recent internal memo “leaked” from Nokia & published on technology website Endgadget.com demonstrates the need for any corporation, but particularly those in the Technology arena, to have a continuous stream of new product developments flowing to the market. This is the direct result of a new product routemap which clearly identifies Customer needs, market trends and technology requirements.

New Product Development should not be a haphazard process but one which is planned years in advance. It should also be adaptable to allow flexibility in the case of new technological or market developments.

Not so long ago Nokia held pole position in the mobile phone market with huge market share. Now they are languishing behind Apple & others in the
Smartphone arena and are struggling to compete with Chinese manufacturers at the bottom end of the market.

However, all is not doom and gloom. The new CEO Stephen Elop obviously
recognises the problems and is keen to address them. This is the key important step in any recovery. Rather than just bury his head in the sand he is tackling the issues head on which is good news for Nokia empoyees and shareholders.

If you need help with your product development process get in touch NOW!

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10 predictions which CRASHED & BURNED….#pmot #in

FuturologyIt’s that time of year again when we all reflect on what has passed and look forward to what is to come, so here are three predictions for 2011 and beyond:-

U.K Economy – whereas there has been a resurgence in manufacturing in the U.K, and a very welcome one at that, there are an awful lot of people facing an uncertain future particularly in the Public sector where tens of thousands will return to work after the holidays to pick up their redundancy notices. On a personal level this is devastating and any talk of these people being absorbed by the private sector is complete nonsense. Some will make the transition but many will face a long painful struggle.

If you are in this position it is a time to reflect on your career and if you are lucky enough to have received a reasonable redundancy payment take time out to think about what you really want to do with your life.  Recessions are a great time for starting your own business for if you can survive a downturn you will be well placed for the future.

FTSE 100.

The Footsie 100 has been on Bull run since early 2009 and currently stands around 5800. The all time peak was around 6800 before the Crash so to assume the current Bull run will continue unabated is blindly optimistic. Shares have been a fairly “safe” option recently with interest rates at an all time low but with inflation on the increase interest rates are due to rise in the next year making Savings accounts more attractive, consequently the FTSE rally with grind to a halt in 2011.

Freelancing.

There are an estimated 1.4 million Freelancers in the U.K. representing a 14% growth in the last 10 years (Small Business Research Centre at Kingston University)  and their numbers are set to rise as this form of employment becomes more common. A significant portion are highly skilled Engineers & Project Managers.

As employers seek flexibility and to minimize severance pay, employing Freelancers at a higher day rate becomes a favored option.

So there are our predictions for 2011 which will probably go the same way as these classic “10 predictions which crashed & burned”……..

1) “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now; All that remains is more and more precise measurement.
Lord Kelvin, speaking to the British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1900.

2) “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.
The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903

3) “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming.
Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, 1926

4) “By the year 1982 the graduated income tax will have practically abolished major differences in wealth.
Irwin Edman, professor of philosophy Columbia University, 1932.

5) “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, March 1949

6 “If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.
W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954.

7) “It will be gone by June.
Variety, passing judgement on rock ‘n roll in 1955.

8) “Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never become a practical proposition.
Dennis Gabor, British physicist and author of Inventing the Future, 1962

9) “With over fifteen types of foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself.
Business Week, August 2, 1968

10) “By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…
Life magazine, January 1970

A Happy New Year to you all !

chris@projectsguru.co.uk

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A Merry Christmas to all……….. #pmot #in

projectsguru-santaPrior to volume launch of a product it’s always a good idea to review the project paperwork.

Check the risk log to ensure all have been mitigated against.

Check the project plan, no outstanding tasks to be completed.

Check Design and Process FMEA’s to make sure all concerns have been addressed.

Review Project costs, making sure they are they on track.

Then call the Chinese Elfish subcontractors and thank them for their efforts. The adoption of Lean manufacturing techniques certainly helped  to reduce costs and improve efficiencies and the product quality is certainly a damn site better, with SPC now in place on key processes we should expect ppm level failures on all toy manufacturing lines next year.

OK, the Reindeers are now fed and watered, breath visible in the cold still air, hooves pawing the frozen ground in anticipation, antlers glistening  and clanking together.

The sledge is loaded, harnesses in place. Presents and parcels of every shape bulging  out like walnuts in a sack.

The air is still and crisp, the stars twinkle in the deep, deep blackness of night. A faint tinkling of bells.

A last puff on the pipe, the long beard as white as the virgin snow against the deep red of the cape.

A crack of a whip and the sleigh begins to move across the hard ground, faster, faster increasing pace as the icy breath of the wind rustles through fur and fleece.

At last the hissing of the sleighs runners fades as it lifts into the air, the white landscape recedes and the sky gets even blacker, the stars shine like crazy diamonds.

“Now, Dasher!  Now, Dancer!  Now, Prancer,  and Vixen!  “On, Comet!  On, Cupid!  On, Donder and Blitzen!”

A faint cry echos across the frozen landscape…….

“A Merry Christmas to all and to all a Good Night !”

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