It’s that time of year again when we all reflect on what has passed and look forward to what is to come, so here are three predictions for 2011 and beyond:-
U.K Economy – whereas there has been a resurgence in manufacturing in the U.K, and a very welcome one at that, there are an awful lot of people facing an uncertain future particularly in the Public sector where tens of thousands will return to work after the holidays to pick up their redundancy notices. On a personal level this is devastating and any talk of these people being absorbed by the private sector is complete nonsense. Some will make the transition but many will face a long painful struggle.
If you are in this position it is a time to reflect on your career and if you are lucky enough to have received a reasonable redundancy payment take time out to think about what you really want to do with your life. Recessions are a great time for starting your own business for if you can survive a downturn you will be well placed for the future.
The Footsie 100 has been on Bull run since early 2009 and currently stands around 5800. The all time peak was around 6800 before the Crash so to assume the current Bull run will continue unabated is blindly optimistic. Shares have been a fairly “safe” option recently with interest rates at an all time low but with inflation on the increase interest rates are due to rise in the next year making Savings accounts more attractive, consequently the FTSE rally with grind to a halt in 2011.
There are an estimated 1.4 million Freelancers in the U.K. representing a 14% growth in the last 10 years (Small Business Research Centre at Kingston University) and their numbers are set to rise as this form of employment becomes more common. A significant portion are highly skilled Engineers & Project Managers.
As employers seek flexibility and to minimize severance pay, employing Freelancers at a higher day rate becomes a favored option.
So there are our predictions for 2011 which will probably go the same way as these classic “10 predictions which crashed & burned”……..
1) “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now; All that remains is more and more precise measurement.”
Lord Kelvin, speaking to the British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1900.
2) “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.”
The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
3) “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming.”
Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, 1926
4) “By the year 1982 the graduated income tax will have practically abolished major differences in wealth.”
Irwin Edman, professor of philosophy Columbia University, 1932.
5) “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, March 1949
6 “If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.”
W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954.
7) “It will be gone by June.”
Variety, passing judgement on rock ‘n roll in 1955.
8) “Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never become a practical proposition.”
Dennis Gabor, British physicist and author of Inventing the Future, 1962
9) “With over fifteen types of foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself.”
Business Week, August 2, 1968
10) “By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…”
Life magazine, January 1970
A Happy New Year to you all !