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Wielding Occams Razor

FullSizeRenderThis week was the anniversary of the tragic 9/11 atrocity & a documentary on T.V presented an explanation of why the towers collapsed based on fundamental scientific & engineering principles which demonstrated how a combination of super-heated aluminium (from the planes)  combined with water to create a powerful explosive mixture which was the most likely explanation for the towers collapse. It was so refreshing to see & hear scientists & engineers, working from first principles, expound a theory which stood up to reasoned argument. No CIA conspiracy, no bombs planted in the towers, no bullshit.

This reminded me of a principle which seems to be in short supply these days, that of Occams Razor. William of Occam became famous for espousing that, ‘where there are numerous solutions to a problem, the simplest explanation is often the answer.’

This is  a valuable piece of wisdom that is rarely employed in the era of big data, risk analysis, DFMEA’s, Statistical Analysis etc etc

Next time you have a problem to solve listen to your inner voice & apply the Razor

where there are numerous solutions to a problem, the simplest explanation is often the answer.

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10 things we can learn from the #chinacrisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA07

1) What goes up MUST come down – I know it’s obvious but some people really believed it was possible for an economy to grow at 7% per year indefinitely – just ask the punters on the Shanghai Index.

2) Gordon Brown didn’t abolish boom & bust – but then we all learned that 7 years ago. Capitalism, for all its pros & cons, is inherently cyclical.

3) Every Market is interconnected – more so now than ever before, any crisis in China will be replicated to one extent or another around the globe.

4) No Government controls the market – whether its the State Capitalist Chinese or the Western Democracies – intervention is limited in its affect.

5) Transparency is a concern – Is the Chinese economy still growing at 6%, 5% or much less – no one knows & there is a distinct lack of trust in the data supplied by the Chinese government.

6) It will impact us all :- The Chinese economy is the second biggest market in the world & although exports vastly exceed imports the purchasing power of the Chinese middle classes will be severely curbed.

7) Social upheaval will follow – The political tensions in China will erupt (to one degree or another); The Chinese Government will struggle to keep a lid on the educated middle classes who have got used to continuous growth & increased wealth.

8) Capitalism is in crisis – as boom follows bust & vice versa Capital flows to the point of highest growth – leaving chaos in its wake.

9) What comes next ? – no one knows – but maybe we should be looking to develop a sustainable society based on full-filling human needs rather than continuously expanding Gross Domestic product ?

10) The sun still rises in the East, sets in the West & the world keeps on turning.

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Dragons dead…?…#innovation

Do you, like me, tune in to ‘Dragons Den’ every week to see wannabees compete for investment from ‘successful multi-millionaire entrepreneurs’ to make their dream a reality.

new-dragons-denDo you cringe when you see the hopeful saps flounder because they don’t know the difference between Gross & Net profit or snigger when they hopelessly overvalue their nascent company.

All great fun but, I don’t know about you, I think there has been a real dearth of Innovation on the show recently, and it all seems very very dated.

Nowadays there are some much better sources for funding innovation which don’t depend on the whim of the multi-millionaire but instead are based on crowd funding – investment from ordinary individuals like you & I attracted by the innovation process & the chance to partake in the creative process.

Here are some examples of these alternative sources of finance for the budding entrepreneur:-

Check them out for yourself:-

www.kickstarter.com

www.indiegogo.com

www.crowdfunder.com

www.rockethub.com

www.angellist.com

There are many more & they all represent a growing trend – a great idea, probably promoted via social media,  attracts a crowd of interested backers, the project develops momentum & its ultimate success rewards everyone involved to one degree or another.

Perhaps this is indicative of the way society is evolving – from Capitalism to Collaboration – where innovation is no longer dependent upon the whims of a small minority of wealthy individuals but is propelled by the shared interest & active participation of the many.
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Rise of the nanobots………………….#innovation

NanotechnologyThe global nanotechnology-based medical devices market is poised to grow at a CAGR of 11-12% from 2014 to 2019. The rapid surge in aging population, increasing international research collaboration, and increased government support for nanotechnology are the major factors driving the growth of the nanotechnology-based medical devices market.

This is one of the areas in which nanotechnology is set to make an impact and who’s use will grow exponentially & prove to be truly disruptive. It may not be long before, instead of going into hospital for major surgery we simply down a glass of nanobots which travel through the bloodstream to arrive at their pre-programmed destination to perform corrective survey without any disruptive invasive procedure.

Another exciting example of Nanotechnology is self-healing materials. These will be able to repair themselves by utilising tiny robots which live on or in the material itself. The Automotive industry is actively engaged in research to develop self -healing paints which will remain scratch free indefinitely.

Nanotechnology is a truly disruptive advance which is set to transform our world forever.

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This will change everything……………..#innovation

artificial-intelligenceHave you heard of the ‘Human Brain Project’ ? :-

‘Understanding the human brain is one of the greatest challenges facing 21st century science. If we can rise to the challenge, we can gain profound insights into what makes us human, develop new treatments for brain disease and build revolutionary new computing technologies. Today, for the first time, modern ICT has brought these goals within sight.’

‘The HBP is working to develop a collaboration infrastructure, which would among other tools include network and cellular simulators, in-silico experimentation facilities, and the opportunity to execute the combination of simulator model and in-silico experiment on a supercomputer or computer cluster. During the project, the tools and the collaboration infrastructure developed by the HBP researchers will be made accessible for the entire neuroscience community. At the seminar, HBP researchers and external neuroscientists will explore the challenges, opportunities and implications of the HBP collaboration infrastructure, and formulate hypotheses, focusing on testing of cognitive tasks like spatial navigation and visual action recognition, that could be tested when the facilities has been developed.’

These developments once thought fantastical reflect the thoughts of pioneering futurist Ray Kurzweil who has talked about the idea of a ‘singularity’ – a point in time in the near future when the development of artificial intelligence reaches a point beyond which it is almost impossible to predict what will happen as humans combine with intelligent machines to produce a race of ‘super- humans’ capable of extended life with un-imaginable consequences. These ideas are both terrifying & exhilarating.

Once considered purely Science Fiction the Human Brain Project suggests that this truly disruptive technology may be closer than we think.

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Internet of Things edges closer #innovation

The Internet of Things edges closer at the Port of Hamburg. 40,000 vehicles move through the port daily & a smart network of sensors on roads & in parking places is helping to speed the flow. This is the Internet of Things (IOT) in a real world application. The system delivers real time information to a variety of computer systems enabling Logistics to be managed more effectively.

IOT2The real benefits will come with machine to machine communications completely independent of human input. This is the ultimate destination of the IOT & is truly ‘disruptive technology’.

Imagine in the near future the same technology willM62 take direct control of your car during periods of heavy congestion, eliminating bunching & moving large volumes of vehicles inches apart at a constant speed.

The Internet of Things will change society forever & is another example of technology which causes a seismic shift.

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#Innovation leads to Future Disruption……………..#technology

disruptiveIn 1947 Engineers at Bell Labs invented the Transistor. This was followed up by a team at Fairchild Semiconductor who developed the Semiconductor Integrated Circuit (I.C) in 1958. Both examples of ‘Disruptive Technology’ which changed the world forever. The phones & computers we take for granted today would not have been possible without these developments.

The invention of the World Wide Web by Tim Berners-Lee in 1989 is another example of Disruptive Technology which brings about a seismic shift in society.

So what is the next Disruptive Technology ? In the next posts we will examine some of the emerging technologies which may change the fabric of society forever:-

Graphene – is an allotrope of Carbon which forms a 2D hexagonal lattice one atom thick. It is incredibly strong (100 x that of steel, by weight) & also very light & flexible. It is also incredibly conductive to both electricity & heat. The potential is enormous as a material to be used in the manufacture of aerospace & automotive components.

A number of U.K companies are involved in the development of Graphene including Applied Graphene Materials as are a number of Universities. In March George Osborne officially opened the National Graphene Institute in Manchester  with a government grant of over £38 million.

Once Graphene is produced in industrial quantities its use will transform society with lighter, stronger structures in Aerospace, buildings & Automotive. to name a few. It’s electrical properties will revolutionise electronics. More efficient battery technologies will make electrically powered vehicles commonplace on our roads & its use in solar cell technology will lead to cheaper greener energy.

Graphene will Disrupt Society in ways bounded by our imaginations.

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Be wary of ‘Big Data’…….

Big-Data
We’re living in a world of ‘Big Data’.

I’m not sure how it crept up on us but it’s everywhere. From our School League Tables to our NHS Trust performance, from our Jobs & the demand for the umbiquitous score sheet to Police Crime Statistics which tell us that crime is pretty much falling everywhere.(!)

Big Data is everywhere & it rules. Try to get anything done without justifying it with the data to back it up & your in for a losing battle. Listen to conversations in Management meetings & count the number of times ‘data’ is mentioned.

And of course if its in the data then it must be true – right ?

Well, there is an interesting thing about data. It’s open to interpretation. And when someone’s bonus or even livelihood is dependent on it there is always a tendency (subconciously or otherwise) to manipulate that data to portray the favoured outcome.

The only way to provide some degree of protection is to totally separate the ones producing & measuring the data from those most likely to benefit if it goes one way or the other.

We’re going to get even more data, as the Internet of Things unfolds and more and more devices are created to measure, in particular, Biometric data –  so we can all measure our heartbeats, chollestrol levels, blood, pressure, heartbeat etc etc & display them on our wearable devices.

What we need to bear in mind is – what is all this data being used for ? Whom does it benefit ? and crucially, who owns it ?

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Solar Impulse to go green…………….#innovation

The Technology event which grabbed my attention this week wasn’t the Apple Watch, with its feeble battery life of 17 hrs & dubious applications, it was the most successful solar powered flight ever by the Solar Impulse.

Powered purely by solar energy this amazing craft is part way to completing the first round the world voyage, flying both day & night, powered solely by solar energy.

The implications of this technology are enormous. Every year we spend billions of pounds & consume millions of barrels of oil shipping products across the globe at enormous cost financially and environmentally. If we could harness  solar powered technology to transport a fraction of these goods we will be reducing consumption of fossil fuels & lowering their damaging effect on our fragile eco-system.

We must harness the power of innovation to combat Climate Change & the success of this amazing craft can point us in the right direction.

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Flexible circuits promise IOT rewards……….#innovation

flex circuitCambridge start up Pragmatic I.C has received over 5 million GBP in funding from Cambridge Innovation Capital, ARM plc & others to develop flexible micro-circuits which may be used to embed computing power in everyday objects and bring on the Internet Of Things revolution.

The firm, whose circuits are ‘thinner than a human hair’ is already making prototype devices in its Cambridge facility & reckons its processes are scalable for mass production.

The ability to embed complex circuits in everyday objects which are not flat like clothing, automotive trim, airplane bodies & household items offers tremendous potential for the development of intelligent ‘things’.

Flexible circuits, in themselves, are nothing new in the world of Microelectronics, I remember working on printed plastic circuits 30 years ago at General Hybrid Ltd in Jarrow before the company was unfortunately declared bankrupt.

Potential problems with flexible circuits tend to revolve around component stability & reliability; hopefully PragmaticIC have this covered & they will go on to have tremendous success, having the backing of ARM plc, the U.K’s most successful ‘modern’  electronics company  is a terrific bonus & their Innovation is to be admired.

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